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Macken Murphy11 December 2025

18 Harsh Realities of Modern Dating - Macken Murphy - #1031

2Frameworks
16Insights

Frameworks in this episode

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 4

Myth Buster14:30

Why women preferred the 'before' body in the viral transformation

When a man's lean transformation went viral, men preferred the ripped 'after' and women preferred the softer 'before'. Rather than women lying, Murphy argues they read the very lean look as less healthy and less formidable, and inferred a personality signal: a body optimised for beautification cues mating-effort over paternal investment. The 'dad bod' research bears this out, less-lean men were ascribed more fatherly qualities.

  • Men preferred the lean after; women preferred the fuller before
  • Women don't lie about preferences, they do it openly for height and muscle
  • Extreme leanness signals effortful self-beautification and mating-effort
  • Dad-bod studies linked less-lean physiques to positive fatherly traits
  • Paternal investment and mating effort trade off against each other

women were seeing that and saying, oh, this guy just like lost a lot of body fat, and I don't like men who are too…

Macken Murphy · 18:00
#attraction#body-composition#evolutionary-psychology#dad-bod
Myth Buster18:00

Women's preferred male body fat is higher than gym bros assume

Most men guess women prefer 9-10% body fat, but the most recent DXA-based study from Zia and colleagues put the preferred range at roughly 13-14%. That is still lean, visible upper abs, maybe some forearm veins, but well short of stage-ready. How lean 13% looks varies a lot by muscle mass and where fat is carried.

  • Preferred male body fat lands around 13-14%, not 9-10%
  • DXA imaging gives true body-fat numbers but looks unlike a real man
  • 13-14% still shows upper abs but is not bodybuilder-dry
  • Appearance at a given body fat depends on muscle and fat distribution

14% is a hard cut away. You've got a hard cut to do to get down to that.

Macken Murphy · 19:00
#body-composition#attraction#research#fitness
Myth Buster47:30

For men, beauty beats chastity, and virgins get discriminated against

Across studies back to David Buss (1989), men on average weight looks over a partner's sexual purity, and in one study still chose women perceived as more attractive despite also perceiving them as more promiscuous. More surprising: in ideal-body-count research, zero past partners was rated about as unattractive as six. With contraception reducing disease and covert-pregnancy risk, body count now works mainly as a proxy for personality, and virginity past a certain age reads as atypical.

  • Men prioritise looks over chastity within normal variation
  • Ideal body count peaked at 1-3; zero was as unattractive as six
  • Women discriminate against male virgins even harder than men do
  • Contraception shifted body count into a personality proxy
  • Outlier cases can flip the beauty-over-chastity ranking

men were as quote unquote put off by virginity as several past partners.

Macken Murphy · 51:00
#mate-preferences#sexual-history#evolutionary-psychology#research
Myth Buster1:18:30

The 'men don't care about your career' claim, checked against the data

A viral tweet claimed men will pick an Applebee's waitress over a corporate executive. The data cut against the strong version: richer men select richer women, more-educated men select more-educated women, and rich women are largely immune to declining marriage. Successful men pair with successful women, partly for shared understanding of a demanding life. Career does register as a low-to-moderate priority, so 'don't care' overshoots, but personality and looks do outrank career.

  • Assortative mating: status pairs with status, education with education
  • Rich women are largely immune to the marriage decline since the 1970s
  • Career is a low-to-moderate, not zero, priority in revealed preferences
  • The tweet's real caveat was disposition ('treat them right'), not looks
  • Elite men value a partner who understands a demanding life

educated men marry educated women, richer men mar... So it's like it doesn't seem to happen very often, not as a norm.

Macken Murphy · 1:34:00
#mate-preferences#assortative-mating#status#research

Hot Take· 3

Hot Take25:30

Bodybuilding is a status game between men, not a signal to women

Murphy argues male physique culture has overshot women's actual preferences the way fashion modelling overshoots men's. What started as competition for female attention became an intrasexual status contest judged on difficulty, more shredded is more impressive to other men. Optimising for that male status can outperform optimising for female preference, because the social standing it buys is worth more than looking marginally better to women.

  • Male aesthetics passed the optimum set by women's preferences
  • Difficulty and status, not attraction, now drive the standard
  • Analogous to fashion modelling overshooting men's preferences
  • Male pre-selection and status can beat raw physical optimisation
  • Foraging-ecology lesson: assume the actor knows something you don't

it probably started out as a competition for the female gaze essentially. But then it became a competition between each other

Macken Murphy · 26:00
#status#evolutionary-psychology#fitness#intrasexual-competition
Hot Take1:30:30

A relationship is one long conversation, so date in your stratosphere

Williamson reframes long-term compatibility as conversational: a relationship is essentially one continuous podcast, and the goal is a partner you can talk to for 20,000 hours without getting bored. That favours partners in a similar intellectual stratosphere, a doctor and a lawyer both understand long hours and cognitive labour, without needing the exact same niche. Murphy notes his researcher girlfriend can engage with all of his work, which he calls a huge hack.

  • Long-term compatibility is largely conversational generativity
  • Aim for a partner you can talk to for 20,000 hours without boredom
  • Similar 'stratosphere' beats identical niche (doctor and lawyer both fit)
  • A partner who understands your work removes ongoing translation labour
  • What you select for in your 20s often isn't what serves you in your 30s

a relationship is essentially one long podcast... You want to be able to speak to someone for 20,000 hours without getting bored.

Chris Williamson · 1:31:00
#relationships#compatibility#long-term-mating
Hot Take1:54:00

The 'tall girl problem': successful women must adapt or not pair up

Murphy frames the elite-woman dilemma as the 'tall girl problem', like women who prefer very tall men but rarely date them. Status-reversed pairings show worse outcomes in some European data, including higher domestic-violence associations, suggesting a painful cultural transition. Since no one will cap women's economic gains, the strategic reality is stark: either adapt preferences or increasingly don't pair up. He's cautiously optimistic humans will adapt over a longer horizon.

  • The 'tall girl problem': ideal preferences outrun reachable partners
  • Status-reversed pairings show worse outcomes in some data
  • No plausible future caps women's economic gains
  • Choice reduces to adapting preferences or not pairing up
  • Cross-cultural cases suggest long-run adaptability is possible

the option is the option that it has been for us and all of our... ancestors for time immemorial adapt or die.

Macken Murphy · 2:01:00
#mating-market#hypergamy#evolutionary-psychology#adaptation

Explainer· 8

Explainer00:30

What women actually prefer in penis size, per the 3D-model study

The strongest data on the question comes from Prause and colleagues, who had women choose from unlabelled 3D models rather than answer a survey, sidestepping the fact that people misjudge inches. Preferences landed around 6.3-6.4 inches in length and 4.8-5 inches in circumference. Because men overestimate their own size by roughly 20%, the preferred length sits near the 95th percentile of actual erect size.

  • Unlabelled 3D models beat surveys because people cannot accurately picture an inch
  • Preferred length ~6.3in long-term, ~6.4in short-term; circumference ~4.8-5in
  • Men over-report their size by ~20%, roughly an inch
  • 6.3in is about 95th percentile, as common as a man being 6'2
  • Circumference matters more per unit because volume scales faster

unlabeled 3D models, I would say that's the gold standard if you actually want to learn what size is preferred

Macken Murphy · 02:00

men overestimate their own size by about 20%.

Macken Murphy · 03:30
#mate-preferences#evolutionary-psychology#research#attraction
Explainer06:00

Why 'ideal' mate preferences mislead and bare-minimum ones reveal

Ideal mate preferences are fanciful and often internally contradictory, women's ideal penis size and ideal partner height were both bigger than they had ever encountered. Because ideals overshoot, the more informative signal is the bare-minimum preference, where actual rejection and deal-breakers show up. Only 27% of women reported ever ending a relationship partly over size, and almost always because the partner was too small.

  • Ideal preferences can exceed anything a person has experienced
  • Ideals often conflict when stacked (e.g. low BMI plus large bust)
  • Bare-minimum preferences reveal real cut-offs and rejection
  • Only ~27% ever broke up partly over size; usually for being too small
  • Behavioural-outcome questions beat hypothetical rating questions

ideal mate preferences, they're often not as informative as bare minimum mate preferences.

Macken Murphy · 13:00
#mate-preferences#evolutionary-psychology#research
Explainer40:00

Why metal guitar is a male status game and acoustic covers court women

Some displays attract women directly; others settle male hierarchies out of view. Playing Wonderwall at a party reads to men as try-hard but can attract women, an interexual advertisement. Heavy-metal virtuosity, played to 90%-male crowds, functions like a proxy for violence: a status contest among men that women don't directly find attractive, so it's a high-risk strategy that pays only if you become elite.

  • Displays split into courting women vs competing with men
  • Acoustic crowd-pleasers can attract women despite annoying men
  • Metal virtuosity plays to male-dominated crowds as a status contest
  • Like animal fights, the contest itself repels females; winning confers status
  • Elite payoff is high, but mediocre performers 'double lose'

it's a massive status competition between the males out of view.

Macken Murphy · 44:00
#status#evolutionary-psychology#intrasexual-competition#music
Explainer1:06:00

Higher body count predicts more infidelity and worse relationship outcomes

Across outcome measures, people with higher-than-expected-for-age counts are more likely to divorce, be dissatisfied and cheat, with no consistent sex difference. In one IFS analysis, the above-five group had roughly double the infidelity rate of the below-five group. The mechanism is intuitive: an affair is a form of casual sex, so a track record of casual sex predicts future casual sex. Whether abstaining causally reduces later cheating can't be ethically tested.

  • Higher body count predicts divorce, dissatisfaction and cheating
  • IFS-style split: above-five infidelity rate ~double the below-five group
  • Effects hold for both sexes, sometimes larger in men
  • Past behaviour predicts future behaviour; an affair is casual sex
  • 'Getting it out of your system' lacks causal support and can't be tested ethically

the infidelity of the above five group was double that of the below five group.

Macken Murphy · 1:07:00
#infidelity#sexual-history#relationships#research
Explainer1:46:00

Hypergamy to hyperandry: the bottom 40% of men and top 20% of women

As women's economic and social gains have equalised the sexes, the mating market has rebalanced. IFS data on ~1.4 million people show the bottom two income quintiles of men, on average, marry up, while the top income quintile of women, on average, out-earn their partners, a reversal of the historical norm that Murphy's supervisor Rob Brooks termed hyperandry. It's unclear how much of this is behavioural adjustment versus a shift in underlying preferences.

  • Women's gains equalised economic productivity and status
  • Bottom 40% of men, on average, now marry up in income
  • Top 20% of women, on average, out-earn their partners
  • Rob Brooks coined 'hyperandry' for the reversed pattern
  • Open question: adjusted behaviour vs adjusted preferences

we are pivoting from a culture where male provisioning is the norm to a culture where biparental provisioning is the norm

Macken Murphy · 1:58:00
#hypergamy#mating-market#economics#research
Explainer2:07:30

Attractiveness is nearly all upside, with two real costs

For mating outcomes, being attractive is win after win: more mates, more desirable mates, and more committed partners. Rarity also makes very attractive people the more-attractive party in most pairings, a protective factor against infidelity. But two costs appear: optionality distress (constant awareness you could trade up) and heavier mate-guarding, since large attractiveness gaps push partners toward cost-inflicting strategies like negging and, in extremes, violence.

  • Attractiveness brings more and more-desirable, more-committed mates
  • People pursue the best-looking person who reciprocates, not their 'league'
  • Rarity makes the very attractive the protected party against infidelity
  • Cost 1: optionality distress and slightly lower satisfaction
  • Cost 2: heavier mate-guarding as attractiveness gaps widen

it's not that people are attracted to people who are their league. It's that they're attracted to the best looking person that reciprocates their interest.

Macken Murphy · 2:07:00
#attraction#relationships#mate-guarding#research
Explainer2:17:00

The non-monogamy asymmetry: bigger benefits and bigger costs, both borne by men

Williamson's insight is that non-monogamy is lopsided: men gain more (higher socioexuality, more desire for variety) but also suffer more from a partner's sexual infidelity. At the ultimate level, a man can father many pregnancies at once while risking cuckoldry, whereas a woman can't be cuckolded, which buttresses the proximate feelings, men fear a partner's sexual infidelity more, women a partner's emotional infidelity. The worst position is a mismatch in desire and jealousy between partners.

  • Men gain more from non-monogamy but pay higher emotional costs
  • Higher male socioexuality is among psychology's most replicable findings
  • Ultimate cause: multiple simultaneous pregnancies vs cuckoldry risk
  • Men fear sexual infidelity most; women fear emotional infidelity most
  • Mismatched desire and jealousy between partners is the worst setup

there are greater benefits but there are greater costs and both are paid by the man.

Chris Williamson · 2:18:30
#non-monogamy#jealousy#evolutionary-psychology#relationships
Explainer2:30:30

The 'rich gay uncle' hypothesis for why homosexuality persists

Heritable homosexuality poses a puzzle: how does it persist if it reduces direct reproduction? The kin-selection idea is that gay men invest in siblings' children, passing genes indirectly. In the West the hypothesis hasn't borne out, but among the fa'afafine of independent Samoa, a recognised third gender, they do invest more avuncularly than straight uncles. Murphy's honest verdict: probably not the general explanation, and he doesn't know what is.

  • Heritable homosexuality is hard to explain given reduced reproduction
  • Kin selection: invest in siblings' children to pass genes indirectly
  • The hypothesis fails in Western samples
  • Supported among Samoa's fa'afafine, who invest more as uncles
  • The older-brother birth-order effect appears immune-mediated

the rich gay uncle hypothesis is probably not true... but this is a pretty cool explanation.

Macken Murphy · 2:39:00
#evolutionary-psychology#homosexuality#kin-selection#research

Takeaway· 1

Takeaway1:16:00

Read body count in context: age, recency, and relationship type

Because the number mainly proxies socioexuality and social adjustment, the raw figure means little without context. Recent research from Thomas and Stuart-Williams found people are sensitive to recency, ten partners years ago reads very differently from ten in the last month. A count of five means opposite things for a 19-year-old versus a 35-year-old, and five long relationships can even be a green flag.

  • Body count is a proxy for socioexuality and normal social adjustment
  • People are sensitive to recency, not just the total number
  • The same number reads differently by age and life stage
  • Five long relationships can be a green flag; five one-offs a red one
  • Avoid the caveman 'high bad, low good' heuristic

what's the context of that number? Like, is this a person... who has had five long-term relationships?

Macken Murphy · 1:18:00
#sexual-history#mate-preferences#research#relationships