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Alex Hutchinson21 October 2019

Analysing Eliud Kipchoge’s Sub-2 Hour Marathon - Alex Hutchinson - #113

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Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 1

Myth Buster

Kipchoge Is Not the Best on Paper — The Unmeasurable X Factor

When Nike lab-tested more than two dozen elite runners, Kipchoge was not at the top; Lelisa Desisa scored higher on VO2 max, lactate threshold and running economy. Yet Kipchoge runs faster than anyone. Hutchinson argues that whatever makes him once-in-a-generation does not show up in lab tests, and that this unmeasurable quality is what keeps sport interesting.

  • Kipchoge had world-class but not freakish lab numbers
  • Lelisa Desisa tested 'off the charts' yet has never run as fast
  • The trait that makes Kipchoge singular is not quantifiable
  • If everything were measurable, sport becomes 'a plumbing contest'
  • Hutchinson describes an intangible presence when meeting him

whatever makes him once in a generation is something that doesn't show up in those lab tests

Alex Hutchinson

a race becomes a plumbing contest, who's got the biggest aorta

Alex Hutchinson
#sports-science#talent#vo2max#mindset

Hot Take· 1

Hot Take

The Vaporfly Shoe Controversy — Is It Still Running?

Since 2016 Nike's carbon-fibre-plate-plus-resilient-foam shoes have rewritten the record books, verified by a New York Times Strava analysis showing runners a couple of percent faster. The problem is not the plate itself but that early prototypes went only to Nike athletes, who swept the 2016 Olympic marathon medals. Hutchinson wants regulation, not necessarily a ban.

  • Two features: a stiff carbon-fibre plate and ultra-resilient foam
  • Independent Strava data confirmed a ~2% speed gain
  • Disguised prototypes swept the 2016 Olympic marathon medals
  • IAAF says shoes must be widely available — but rule is unenforced
  • The real objection is access inequality, not the plate itself

it's not the plate, it's the fact that it works that's the problem

Alex Hutchinson

they swept the top three spots in the men's marathon

Alex Hutchinson
#shoes#vaporfly#nike#technology-doping

Explainer· 6

Explainer

What the INEOS 1:59 Challenge Actually Was

Eliud Kipchoge ran 42.2km in under two hours in a Vienna park, but it does not count as an official world record. It was an exhibition race, reportedly with a 15 million pound budget, engineered to make one man as fast as possible. Every optimisable variable was controlled, which is exactly why it became controversial.

  • First human to run a marathon distance faster than two hours
  • Not an official record because the conditions break IAAF rules
  • Reported 15 million pound budget for a single-runner exhibition
  • An electric car set exact two-hour pace and shone lasers on the road
  • 41 world-class pacemakers rotated to shield him from drag

a human being ran less than or faster than two hours for 42.2 kilometers

Alex Hutchinson

every possible thing anyone could imagine to make him faster was done

Alex Hutchinson
#running#marathon#kipchoge#ineos
Explainer

How a Human Builds Sub-2 Marathon Physiology

Hutchinson argues the first requirement is genetic: you have to be born to run that fast. On top of that, Kipchoge grew up active at altitude in Kenya's Rift Valley, accumulated huge childhood mileage, and now runs roughly 140 miles a week. The result is decades in the making, not a science shortcut.

  • Genetics come first: 'pick your parents correctly'
  • Grew up running back and forth to school at altitude
  • Accumulated more childhood training than many serious university runners
  • Ran roughly 140 miles (over 200km) a week before the attempt
  • He is still the only human on Earth who could have done it

the first really important task is to pick your parents correctly

Alex Hutchinson

there's still only one human in the world who could have done this

Alex Hutchinson
#running#genetics#training#endurance
Explainer

Why Long, Skinny Legs Make You a Faster Runner

Decades of experiments strapping small weights to a runner's foot, shin or hip show the further a weight sits from your body's centre, the more it costs. A little extra weight on the feet meaningfully worsens efficiency. So long, skinny, low-calf legs act as light levers that propel you forward without a weight penalty — a common trait where Kipchoge grew up.

  • Weight far from the body's centre costs disproportionately more energy
  • Even a few ounces on the foot changes running efficiency
  • Long skinny legs with minimal calf muscle are ideal levers
  • This body type is characteristic of Kipchoge's home region
  • Explains why shoe weight matters so much to elites

the farther away from the center of your body a weight is, the harder it is

Alex Hutchinson
#biomechanics#running-economy#efficiency
Explainer

Why Two Pacemakers Ran Behind Kipchoge

The 41 pacers rotated in teams of seven — five in front, two behind. Wind-tunnel and computational fluid-dynamics tests showed the trailing pair matters: like being mid-peloton rather than at the back, runners behind keep the airflow smooth and push turbulence back beyond the last pacer, reducing drag on Kipchoge.

  • Pacers rotated in teams of seven, five ahead and two behind
  • Trailing pacers smooth the airflow around the runner
  • Same principle as riding mid-peloton versus at the rear
  • Turbulence gets pushed behind the last pacemaker
  • Validated with wind-tunnel and CFD simulations

It's faster to be in the middle of the Peloton than at the back of the Peloton

Alex Hutchinson
#aerodynamics#drafting#pacing
Explainer

The Legal Downhill Start That Saved 10 Seconds

Before the loop, runners went about 500 metres down a bridge, descending 13-14 metres and saving roughly 10 seconds. It is not cheating: IAAF road-record rules permit a net descent up to a 1-in-1000 ratio, meaning up to about 42 metres over the marathon. Organisers used only a third of the allowable drop.

  • A ~500m bridge descent of 13-14m opened the race
  • Estimated to save around 10 seconds of 'free time'
  • IAAF rules allow up to a 1-in-1000 descent ratio
  • That permits roughly 42m of net drop over the distance
  • They used only about a third of the allowance

you're allowed to have a one in one thousand ratio descent

Alex Hutchinson
#rules#course-design#iaaf
Explainer

Just How Fast Kipchoge Was Actually Moving

Kipchoge held roughly 4:34 per mile, about 2:49 per kilometre, or near 17 seconds per 100 metres — over 13 miles an hour sustained for the full distance. Hutchinson notes most people could not sprint that pace for even 10 seconds, and his smooth form disguises the speed. Recreational runners darting alongside the barricades lasted about 15 seconds before dropping off.

  • Roughly 4:34 per mile, 2:49 per km pace
  • Around 17 seconds per 100 metres, over 13 mph sustained
  • Most people cannot sprint that fast for 10 seconds
  • His smooth, gliding form hides how fast he is going
  • Fit spectators running alongside lasted about 15 seconds

he was doing 434 per mile

Alex Hutchinson

they last you know, 15 seconds, tops

Alex Hutchinson
#pace#speed#marathon#kipchoge

Story· 1

Story

Why Vienna Won the Global Search for the Perfect Course

Organisers ran a worldwide search to optimise flatness, few sharp turns, temperature, altitude, humidity and logistics, needing a two-week window to pick the best weather day. They rejected a Chicago convention centre (weak air conditioning), a Dutch dike (felt like cheating) and even ice walls. Vienna offered long straightaways and, crucially, crowd support Kipchoge wanted.

  • Course optimised for flatness and minimal sharp corners
  • Flexible date window to pick the best forecast
  • Rejected indoor Chicago venue — air conditioning too weak
  • Rejected a tailwind Dutch dike as 'too much like cheating'
  • Vienna added crowd support that the silent Nike race lacked

They decided that would feel too much like cheating

Alex Hutchinson
#course-design#logistics#marathon

Tool· 1

Tool

Maurten: The Hydrogel Drink That Hides Carbs From Your Stomach

Maurten, a Swedish sports drink using pectin and alginate, reacts with stomach acid to form a hydrogel that encapsulates carbohydrate. That lets athletes ingest higher carb concentrations without the GI distress that normally causes vomiting or diarrhoea mid-race. It has swept the endurance world and Kipchoge swears by it, though there is no published proof it works as claimed.

  • Uses pectin and alginate to form a hydrogel in the stomach
  • Encapsulates carbs so the stomach does not rebel
  • Enables higher carbohydrate intake during endurance events
  • Adopted widely; Kipchoge is a public user
  • No data yet confirms the mechanism actually works

The hydrogel hides this carbohydrate

Alex Hutchinson
#nutrition#hydrogel#fueling#endurance

Takeaway· 2

Takeaway

The Simplest Fix: Cap Shoe Sole Thickness

A British Journal of Sports Medicine proposal argues against policing plate materials, counts or lengths — that path leads to MRI-ing shoes before every race. Instead, borrow the high-jump precedent and simply cap sole thickness. Within that limit, put whatever technology you like; you just cannot have unlimited real estate turning running into an equipment sport.

  • Debating plate material and length gets impractical fast
  • High jump already caps shoe sole thickness by precedent
  • A single thickness limit is the simplest enforceable rule
  • Any tech is allowed within the allotted space
  • Keeps running from becoming equipment-dominated

you cannot wear platform shoes

Alex Hutchinson
#regulation#shoes#policy#running
Takeaway

The Kamikaze Index: Sometimes You Have to Blow Up to Find Your Limits

At the 2019 World Championships, middle and long distance races went out unusually fast, abandoning the cat-and-mouse tactics of the previous two decades. Hutchinson quantified this with a 'kamikaze index' comparing starting pace to average pace. His personal takeaway: to discover your true limits you sometimes have to go out too fast, and either hold on for a best time or crash and learn.

  • 2019 championship races started anomalously fast versus 20-year norm
  • Breaks from the tactical, slow, cat-and-mouse championship style
  • Hutchinson's 'kamikaze index' = start pace vs average pace
  • Going out too fast can reveal a new sustainable ceiling
  • Blowing up is a valuable data point, not just a failure

if you really want to find your limits, sometimes you have to blow up

Alex Hutchinson

sometimes you've got to exceed them and crash and burn

Alex Hutchinson
#racing-tactics#mindset#limits#pacing