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Will MacAskill13 August 2022

How Long Could Humanity Continue For? - Will MacAskill - #512

0Frameworks
7Insights

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 1

Myth Buster00:00

Cortisol Does Not Cause Belly Fat

Contrary to popular belief, cortisol is not the primary driver of belly fat. The real causes are more complex and include diet, lifestyle, and metabolic factors. This myth oversimplifies hormonal health and distracts from evidence-based approaches to wellness.

  • Cortisol levels alone do not determine abdominal fat accumulation.
  • Chronic stress may influence weight, but not directly through cortisol-driven fat storage.
  • Diet quality, insulin sensitivity, and physical activity are more significant factors.
#hormones#metabolism#health-myths

Hot Take· 1

Hot Take62:00

Climate Activism Distracts From Bigger Existential Risks

While climate change is important, the overwhelming focus on it has crowded out attention to even greater threats like engineered pandemics and unaligned AI. These risks pose higher probabilities of global catastrophe but receive far less public and policy attention.

  • Climate change is one of many existential risks, not the only one.
  • Engineered pandemics and AI may pose greater extinction risks.
  • Public concern is disproportionately focused on climate, limiting action on other fronts.

“I worry that there is a little bit of a value lock-in... where anything that detracts away from a focus on climate change is seen…”

Will MacAskill · 62:00
#existential-risk#climate-change#public-awareness

Explainer· 1

Explainer01:30

How Long Could Humanity Last?

Humanity is at the very beginning of history, with a potentially vast future ahead. If we survive existential threats, our species could last millions or even billions of years—far longer than our current 300,000-year existence. Even small survival probabilities translate into enormous expected lifespans when scaled across time and space.

  • Homo sapiens have existed for ~300,000 years, but typical mammal species last ~1 million years.
  • Earth will remain habitable for hundreds of millions of years; the sun will burn for ~8 billion more years.
  • If humanity reaches the stars, our potential lifespan could extend to trillions of years.
  • Even a 1% chance of interstellar expansion implies a life expectancy of a trillion years.

“We are at the very beginning of History. Future Generations will see us as the Ancients living in the distant past.”

Will MacAskill · 01:30
#long-termism#human-extinction#future-timeline

Story· 1

Story71:30

Hiroshima’s Remarkable Recovery

Despite being destroyed by an atomic bomb, Hiroshima rebounded quickly. Within 13 years, its population returned to pre-bomb levels. Today, it's a thriving city—proof that even after catastrophic events, human societies can recover and rebuild.

  • Hiroshima was rebuilt within a decade after nuclear devastation.
  • The city now thrives as a symbol of resilience.
  • This recovery suggests civilization could bounce back from even global catastrophes.

“Within 13 years, the population was back to the population before it was bombed.”

Will MacAskill · 71:30
#civilizational-recovery#resilience#history

Q&A· 1

Q&A04:00

What Can We Do Now to Shape the Long-Term Future?

We can impact the long-term future by reducing extinction risks and improving civilizational resilience. This includes accelerating defensive technologies, promoting moral progress, and ensuring future generations inherit a world capable of sustaining flourishing societies.

  • Reduce risks from engineered pandemics, AI, and nuclear war.
  • Invest in technologies like far-UVC lighting to prevent airborne diseases.
  • Promote moral and cultural evolution to avoid value lock-in.
  • Support institutions that prioritize long-term thinking.

“What can we do to ensure that we navigate these challenges and try to bring about a wonderful future for our grandchildren and their grandchildren?”

Will MacAskill · 04:00
#existential-risk#long-termism#moral-progress

Tool· 1

Tool08:00

Far-UVC Lighting Could Prevent Pandemics

Far-UVC lighting is a promising technology that safely kills airborne pathogens in rooms. If widely adopted, it could make future pandemics nearly impossible and eliminate most respiratory diseases.

  • Far-UVC light kills viruses and bacteria without harming humans.
  • Can be integrated into standard light bulbs.
  • Could prevent airborne disease transmission in public spaces.
  • Currently under research and development for scalability.

“If this checks out... we could launch a campaign to ensure this is installed in all light bulbs all around the world.”

Will MacAskill · 09:00
#biotech#pandemic-prevention#emerging-tech

Takeaway· 1

Takeaway73:30

Leave Fossil Fuels for Future Civilizations

Burning fossil fuels today may deprive future societies of critical resources if civilization collapses and must reindustrialize. Preserving coal and oil could be essential for recovery after a global catastrophe.

  • Easily accessible fossil fuels enabled the Industrial Revolution.
  • Future civilizations may need them to reindustrialize after collapse.
  • Clean energy investment helps preserve fossil fuels for emergencies.

“We might need [coal] in the future... if there's a catastrophe that sends civilization back to agricultural levels.”

Will MacAskill · 73:30
#civilizational-recovery#energy#long-term-planning