Davidowitz24 February 2024

The Hidden Statistics That Control The NBA - Seth Stephens-Davidowitz - #749

0Frameworks

14Insights

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 2

Myth Buster03:00

Tall NBA Players Are Worse Athletes Than Shorter Ones

Contrary to assumption, taller NBA players are generally worse athletes across measurable dimensions—jumping, speed, shooting, and clutch performance—because the advantage of height reduces the need for elite athleticism.

Seven-footers jump only slightly higher than an average trained person.
They are slower than high school track runners and shoot worse than high school players.
Less mental toughness under pressure compared to shorter NBA players.

“The average seven-footer... handles pressure worse than an average high school basketball player. He's just not that great, but he is really, really tall.”
Guest · 04:30

#athletic-performance#height#nba#clutch-performance#sports-science

Myth Buster24:00

Most NBA Players Come From Stable, Middle-Class Homes

Contrary to the 'ghetto escape' narrative, NBA players are far more likely to come from two-parent, middle-class families. Names like 'Chris' dominate, while unique names associated with poverty are rare.

Black NBA players less likely to be born to single or teenage mothers.
Names like Chris, Michael, Marcus are common; unique names are underrepresented.
LeBron James is an outlier with a difficult upbringing.

“Black NBA players are half as likely as the black population at large to have unique names.”
Guest · 25:00

#nba#socioeconomics#family-background#LeBron-James#social-mobility

Explainer· 4

Explainer00:00

Why Seven-Footers Have a 1-in-7 Chance at the NBA

Being seven feet tall gives a person a one-in-seven chance of making it to the NBA, an extraordinary probability unmatched in any other glamorous profession. This is due to the extreme rarity of such height—occurring in about one in 650,000 people—and the immense advantage height provides in basketball.

Seven-footers have a 1-in-7 chance of reaching the NBA.
Height of seven feet or more occurs in roughly 1 in 650,000 people.
No other physical trait offers such a direct path to fame and wealth.

“What percentage of seven-footers are in the NBA? To the best of our knowledge, it's about one in seven, which is enormous.”
Host · 00:00

#nba#height#genetics#sports#probability

Explainer01:00

Each Inch of Height Doubles NBA Odds

For every additional inch in height, a person's chances of making the NBA roughly double. This creates a massive disparity—while a seven-footer has a 1-in-7 shot, someone under five-foot-ten has only a 1-in-3.8 million chance.

Each inch of height approximately doubles NBA odds.
Under five-foot-ten: 1-in-3.8 million chance of NBA success.
Muggsy Bogues (5'3") is a rare exception who played 14 NBA seasons.

“Each inch roughly doubles your chances of making the NBA... if you're seven-two, you have twice the chance than if you're seven-one.”
Guest · 01:30

#height#nba#athletic-performance#statistics#basketball

Explainer10:00

Volleyball Popularity Steals Tall Talent From Basketball

In countries where volleyball is more popular than basketball—like Bulgaria, Brazil, and Iran—fewer tall athletes enter basketball pipelines, reducing NBA representation despite ideal physical traits.

Volleyball uses similar body types as basketball (6'8" average).
In Bulgaria, a top volleyball player earns far less than an NBA minimum.
Tall athletes in these countries pursue volleyball instead of basketball.

“In Bulgaria, the dream is to spike a volleyball, which is a horrible financial decision.”
Guest · 11:30

#volleyball#nba#sports-popularity#talent-pipeline#international-sports

Explainer12:30

Basketball Is More Genetic Than Any Other Sport

Basketball is highly dependent on genetics, evidenced by the high number of identical twins in the NBA. Traits like height, wingspan, and vertical leap are largely hereditary, making genetic lottery a dominant factor.

11 pairs of twins in the NBA—all identical, none fraternal.
Height is 80% genetic; hand size, arm length, and vertical leap are also highly genetic.
More than 50% chance an identical twin of an NBA player also makes the league.

“Basketball is enormously genetic, more genetic than pretty much any other sport we can measure.”
Guest · 12:30

#genetics#nba#sports-science#twins#athletic-performance

Story· 1

Story35:30

Why Buffett and Millsap Chose Lesser-Known Colleges

Both Warren Buffett and Paul Millsap turned down elite schools for less prestigious ones where they felt more comfortable. Despite this, both achieved long-term success, showing elite colleges don’t guarantee superior outcomes.

Buffett left Wharton for University of Nebraska for family and comfort.
Millsap chose Louisiana Tech over top programs for comfort and proximity.
Both succeeded long-term despite not attending elite schools.

“They both turned down the opportunity to go to an elite college to go to a college that was less elite, but they felt more…”
Guest · 35:30

#college-choice#warren-buffett#paul-millsap#nba#success

Q&A· 1

Q&A28:00

Do Taller Players Choke More in Clutch Moments?

Yes—taller NBA players perform significantly worse in clutch free throws. The average seven-footer shoots over six percentage points worse in pressure situations, while six-footers show no drop.

Average seven-footer shoots >6% worse in clutch moments.
Six-footers show no difference in clutch vs. non-clutch free throws.
Less selective pressure on tall players reduces mental toughness demands.

“The average seven-footer shoots free throws more than six percentage points worse in clutch moments.”
Guest · 30:30

#clutch-performance#nba#psychology#height#choking

Tool· 3

Tool07:00

Muggsy's: A Height-Adjusted NBA Performance Metric

The guest created 'Muggsy's,' a metric to evaluate NBA players adjusted for height. It reveals how impressive shorter players like Muggsy Bogues were relative to taller peers.

Muggsy's measures how good a player would be if all were the same height.
Muggsy Bogues ranks #1, showing his achievement at 5'3" was extraordinary.
Michael Jordan still ranks #9, proving his elite status even height-adjusted.

“I ranked every player... how good they would be if they were the same height, how many Muggsy's they'd have.”
Guest · 07:30

#nba#analytics#performance-metric#muggsy-bogues#basketball-stats

Tool15:00

Hand Size Is a Hidden NBA Draft Predictor

NBA teams undervalue hand size in drafts, but wide hands—critical for palming, dribbling, and rebounding—are strongly correlated with success. Players with below-average hand width often fail.

Average NBA hand width: ~8 inches; elite players often have 12-inch spans.
Phil Jackson preferred Jordan over Bryant partly due to hand size.
17 of 19 players with sub-8-inch hands underperformed or failed in NBA.

“Being able to palm a ball hugely valuable... Giannis or Kawhi Leonard hands.”
Guest · 15:30

#nba#hand-size#draft-analysis#biometrics#basketball

Tool45:30

Standing Leap Predicts NBA Success Better Than Vertical Leap

In NBA combines, standing leap (no running start) better predicts rebounding and shot-blocking than vertical leap. Yet, teams overvalue the more 'sexy' running leap.

Standing leap matters more in real-game situations like boxing out.
Players with strong standing leaps are undervalued in drafts.
Running leap is flashy but less indicative of in-game performance.

“It's not the vertical leap... it's the standing leap. Because a lot of basketball you don't get a running head start.”
Guest · 46:00

#nba-draft#athletic-testing#standing-leap#vertical-leap#scouting

Takeaway· 3

Takeaway19:00

Sons of NBA Players Shoot Free Throws Better

Sons of NBA players shoot free throws at an 80% clip—5 points above the league average—likely due to early coaching and home environment, even after controlling for genetics.

NBA sons shoot 80% from the free-throw line vs. 75% league average.
Advantage likely comes from elite coaching and early training.
Shows non-genetic advantages of growing up in basketball families.

#nba#free-throws#genetics#coaching#family-influence

Takeaway39:00

High School Draftees Outperformed College Players

NBA players drafted straight out of high school—like Kobe and Garnett—massively outperformed their draft spots, suggesting their bold choice signaled exceptional self-belief and potential.

Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, and others outperformed expectations.
Going pro early signaled deep self-knowledge and confidence.
Now banned—players must spend a year in college.

“It was a great bet. Now, you have to go to college for a year, so you can't take advantage of this inefficiency anymore.”
Guest · 39:30

#nba-draft#kobe-bryant#kevin-garnett#high-school#self-belief

Takeaway53:00

Hard Work Can't Overcome Genetics in Basketball

While hard work separates greats like Jordan from stars like Shaq, it cannot elevate someone without elite genetics (height, hand size, speed) to NBA level. In basketball, genetics dominate.

Hard work moves the needle from Shaq to MJ, not from average to NBA.
Sports like equestrian or skiing reward effort more than basketball.
Genetic traits like height, wingspan, and leap are 70–90% hereditary.

“Hard work can take you from Shaq to MJ. But it's not going to take you from Seth to Shaq.”
Guest · 53:30

#hard-work#genetics#nba#basketball#success