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Malcolm Collins12 June 2023

Why Do So Many People Not Want To Have Children? - Malcolm Collins - #640

0Frameworks
19Insights

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 1

Myth Buster22:00

Why Cash Handouts and Free Childcare Barely Move the Fertility Needle

Malcolm debunks the idea that government cash incentives can reverse fertility collapse, using Hungary and China as examples of huge spending producing tiny or negligible gains against a much larger underlying downward trend.

  • Hungary spent 5% of its GDP on fertility incentives and only raised the fertility rate by about 1.6%, while it was dropping ~3%/year anyway.
  • China's birth rate dropped 20% in 2020 and 13% in 2021; even after COVID lockdowns ended in 2022 it only rose 0.18%.
  • Free childcare programs help a bit (roughly 3-4%) but not nearly enough to offset the broader downward trend.
  • Ethnic-state policies (closing borders, one culture/one country) also don't work — South Korea is an ethnic state with one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.

You're just seeing a 1.6% increase for 5% of your GDP — that's irrelevant.

Malcolm Collins · 22:30
#fertility-policy#government#myth-buster

Hot Take· 3

Hot Take37:00

'You Win Now Not Through War, But With Love'

Malcolm argues that demographic collapse has fundamentally changed the logic of geopolitical conquest: countries like Russia attacking Ukraine over territory are playing an obsolete game, since both nations have collapsing fertility and neither can replace the generation lost to war. The new competition is about which culture can convince people to have and keep kids.

  • Historically, spreading a culture meant war, conquest, and forced conversion.
  • Russia and Ukraine both have desperately low fertility rates and are killing each other's next generation in an unwinnable war by old-world logic.
  • He argues Japan, Korea, and China could theoretically 'conquer' each other now just by having more surviving descendants, not through violence.
  • The new winning strategy requires raising kids who are proud enough of their culture to stay in it, not just having many kids.

The game that they're still playing — you win now not through war, but with love.

Malcolm Collins · 37:00

If you spam kids, they're gonna breed like caged panda bears... they're just going to drift off into this monoculture and disappear.

Malcolm Collins · 37:30
#geopolitics#russia-ukraine#fertility-collapse#hot-take
Hot Take41:30

The 'Cheat Code' He Fears: Using Africa as a Breeding Ground

Malcolm names what he considers the most dangerous 'solution' developed nations may pursue: using mass immigration from high-fertility, desperately poor countries (mostly in Africa) to paper over their own population collapse — which creates a perverse economic incentive to keep those countries poor.

  • Only desperately poor countries (mostly African) currently maintain above-replacement fertility.
  • Developed nations could become economically incentivized to keep those countries poor to sustain a supply of immigrants.
  • He calls this plan 'sick' and predicts it ultimately won't work because immigrant fertility rates crash fast (first-gen US immigrants fall to 1.7).
  • Historical parallel: during the Irish Potato Famine, many people didn't want to leave even when offered passage, similar to how he expects many people won't want to emigrate at scale.

You use Africa almost like a breeding ground to create the future population to be pulled across into other countries... it's sick.

Malcolm Collins · 42:00
#immigration#africa#hot-take#demographics
Hot Take73:00

'It's Eugenics for the Government to Tell My Family What Genetic Choices to Make'

Malcolm pushes back hard on critics who label his family's embryo selection 'eugenics,' arguing the actual definition of eugenics is state-imposed genetic uniformity, and that it's the opposite position — banning families from making their own genetic choices — that fits the definition more precisely.

  • He defines eugenics strictly as the belief that 'good' genes should be maximally spread through society by force or policy.
  • Argues reproductive choice should always sit with individual families/cultural groups, never be state-mandated either way.
  • Cites Ashkenazi Jewish Tay-Sachs screening and Black community sickle-cell screening as precedents for this kind of family-level genetic choice.
  • Calls it 'anti-semitic and racist' to label these existing community screening practices eugenics.

If anything, I would say that it's eugenics for the government to come and tell my family the genetic choices we should make.

Malcolm Collins · 73:30
#eugenics#genetic-screening#ethics

Explainer· 9

Explainer04:30

The 'Titanic' Argument for Why He's So Loud About Birth Rates

Malcolm addresses the objection that fertility is nobody else's business. He argues he isn't trying to grow world population or force anyone to have kids — he compares the situation to the Titanic already having hit the iceberg, where the goal is just to get people who want to survive into the lifeboats calmly before panic sets in.

  • He's not trying to increase world population or convert people to natalism broadly — his own family's lineage is already secure.
  • The metaphor: the ship is going down regardless; the goal is orderly awareness, not universal alarm.
  • He's primarily worried about the collapse of cultural and ethnic diversity, not about total population numbers.
  • He predicts within a generation or two there could be as few as three surviving ethnic/cultural groups if nothing changes.

If we are on the Titanic right now, no matter what, the Titanic hits the iceberg. We are trying to... get them in lines by…

Malcolm Collins · 04:30

I don't need to worry about people like me. The reason I'm so loud about this is because I'm worried about the massive collapse in…

Malcolm Collins · 05:00
#fertility-collapse#cultural-diversity#hot-take
Explainer06:30

What Malcolm Means by the 'Urban Monoculture'

Malcolm lays out his framing of modern politics as a battle between a homogenizing progressive 'monoculture' and distinct conservative traditions. He argues that scratching beneath the surface of progressive Muslims, Jews, Catholics, and Unitarians reveals near-identical values, whereas conservative versions of those same faiths remain genuinely distinct.

  • Progressive versions of different religions/cultures converge on nearly identical morals and goals — a single underlying 'virus' or culture.
  • Conservative versions of the same traditions remain distinctly different from each other.
  • The monoculture is optimized around spreading itself and reducing in-the-moment human suffering (e.g., 'Health at Every Size' messaging).
  • He calls sympathetic conservatives who still want to erase other cultures once in power 'sleeper progressives'.

If I look at conservatives from each of those factions, their worldviews are very different... optimizing around the goals of this monoculture: spreading the monoculture…

Malcolm Collins · 07:00
#urban-monoculture#politics#culture
Explainer12:30

Why 'Shadow Banning' Beats Cancellation as a Cultural Weapon

Malcolm explains why he thinks the modern progressive movement spreads more effectively than any historical religious or political movement: instead of publicly punishing dissenters (like burning heretics), it quietly cuts a person's connections to institutional power — fewer promotions, fewer publications, less algorithmic reach — so allies never see an overt injustice to react to.

  • Historically, cultural deviation was punished visibly (execution, banishment), which triggered backlash from allied groups.
  • The modern approach 'shadow bans' a drifting node — quietly reducing their institutional access — so there's no visible spectacle to provoke solidarity.
  • This is why public cancellation is actually a fairly rare and ineffective tactic compared to quiet professional/algorithmic deprioritization.
  • He credits the internet as a 'super-spreader environment' that let this new cultural strategy evolve and out-compete older traditions rapidly.

That's actually why cancellation is a fairly ineffective tactic and genuinely not used that much when contrasted with just this shadow-banning process.

Malcolm Collins · 13:30
#urban-monoculture#social-media#cultural-evolution
Explainer15:00

The Groups Actually Resisting Fertility Collapse (It's Not Who You Think)

Malcolm breaks down which populations are truly above replacement fertility versus which are commonly misunderstood. High-fertility countries are almost always desperately poor (under $5,000/year average income); once wealth or prosperity arrives, virtually every group's fertility collapses — except conservative Christians and conservative Jews.

  • Above-replacement fertility correlates almost perfectly with national average income under $5,000/year, regardless of religion or region.
  • Muslim populations have high fertility only while poor or a majority group in their own country; e.g., Iran has been below replacement since 2014 despite heavy government intervention (now only 1.7).
  • 'White conservative people' are actually one of the only wealthy groups not disappearing from prosperity-induced fertility collapse.
  • Eastern traditions, even conservative versions, are comparatively bad at resisting fertility collapse once prosperous.

White conservative people are like the only people on Earth who don't seem to be disappearing in the face of prosperity-induced fertility collapse.

Malcolm Collins · 16:30
#fertility-rates#religion#demographics
Explainer34:00

Why Banning Abortion or Vasectomies Doesn't Fix Fertility (Romania & China)

Malcolm walks through historical attempts to force fertility rates up via authoritarian means, most notably Romania's abortion ban under Ceaușescu, which spiked births briefly before collapsing once having kids became associated with poverty and low status. He warns China's current restrictions on vasectomy clinics are repeating mistakes Iran already tried and failed at a decade ago.

  • Romania banned abortion under communism; fertility rose briefly (~2 years) then crashed once repealed, because having kids became linked to poverty/low status.
  • China is currently restricting access to things like vasectomy clinics, echoing tactics Iran already tried roughly a decade earlier without success.
  • He predicts these authoritarian pushes escalate toward genuinely dystopian, 'Handmaid's Tale'-style measures as desperation grows.
  • He was accused by The Guardian of making a 'threat' for stating this prediction, which he rejects as a misreading of a warning.

You're going to have to get really aggressive if you actually want to solve this — and that's where I get really scared.

Malcolm Collins · 34:30
#authoritarianism#china#romania#fertility-policy
Explainer39:00

Why a Shrinking Population Breaks the Debt-Leveraged Economy (Detroit Example)

Malcolm explains why economic growth has depended on an ever-growing worker population, and why a shrinking population combined with high societal leverage (debt) could trigger Detroit-style urban collapse at a national scale — including homes losing all value once people expect prices to keep falling.

  • Stock market growth has historically relied on exponentially growing worker counts plus roughly linear productivity growth per worker.
  • Nations, cities, and businesses are leveraged with debt much like his private equity example: a small % drop in asset value can wipe out equity entirely.
  • Once people expect house prices to keep declining, houses can effectively go to near-zero value because no one will invest in maintaining a depreciating asset — as happened in Detroit.
  • He predicts widespread urban blight and economic dysfunction as populations shrink in developed countries.

When a house is a dollar, there's no reason to maintain it — as anyone who is a homeowner knows, you put so much money…

Malcolm Collins · 40:30
#economy#debt#population-collapse#detroit
Explainer46:30

Negative Utilitarianism: The Philosophy Behind Extreme Anti-Natalism

Malcolm explains the belief system underlying the most extreme anti-natalist movements (like stophavingkids.org), which hold that human life is net suffering and therefore having children is morally wrong — a philosophy he distinguishes from run-of-the-mill population concerns.

  • Negative utilitarianism holds negative emotions are inherently bad while positive emotions aren't inherently good, or that suffering outweighs happiness.
  • He illustrates it with a thought experiment: a lifetime of maximum bliss versus a lifetime of maximum torture — most people intuit suffering is 'worse' than pleasure is 'good.'
  • Extreme adherents (he calls them near-terrorists) argue net human life is suffering and want to sterilize the population involuntarily.
  • He predicts this group will become more extremist and dangerous as the broader progressive movement shrinks.

They basically say that a human life is net suffering overall, therefore it is morally reprehensible to bring any future life into this world.

Malcolm Collins · 47:30
#philosophy#anti-natalism#negative-utilitarianism
Explainer62:00

The 'Second Puberty': Why Status and Hedonism Stop Making You Happy

Malcolm argues humans undergo a biological shift around the time they have kids, where testosterone drops and happiness sources change — using the children's character Blippi as a metaphor for what a status/hedonism-optimized adult life looks like, and why it feels empty past a certain age.

  • Humans go through a 'second puberty' when they have kids: testosterone drops and happiness becomes sourced differently, more deeply.
  • Blippi represents the ideal of childhood happiness (play, exploration); he argues Andrew Tate represents the teenage-boy ideal of adult happiness that looks hollow to actual grown men.
  • People who keep optimizing for teenage-style status/pleasure into middle age often find nothing satisfies them anymore because their culture no longer nudges them to the next life stage.
  • This is offered as an explanation for a lot of modern adult unhappiness and influencer culture.

I often argue that Andrew Tate is sort of the Blippi for teenagers — this is what a teenage boy thinks is the ideal adult…

Malcolm Collins · 62:30
#happiness#psychology#status#parenting
Explainer86:00

IVG Explained: Lab-Grown Eggs and Sperm From Any Cell

Malcolm gives a simple explanation of in vitro gametogenesis (IVG) — creating eggs and sperm from other cells — and its radical implications, including biological children for older parents, same-sex couples, and even large polyamorous groups, potentially paired with artificial wombs.

  • IVG means eggs and sperm can be created from a person's other cells, not just existing reproductive cells.
  • It could let two men, or theoretically a 13-person polycule, have a child that is biologically 'theirs.'
  • Combined with artificial wombs (which he says are also close to viable), it could let older people have biologically healthier children.
  • He frames this alongside artificial wombs as key technological solutions that could reshape which cultural/family structures are viable for raising kids.

It also means you can do fancier things — you could have a poly couple of like 13 people and they could have a kid…

Malcolm Collins · 86:30
#ivg#reproductive-technology#artificial-wombs

Story· 4

Story02:00

How a VC Job in Korea Made Him See the Fertility Collapse

Malcolm explains that VCs, unlike Wall Street analysts, must model economies 50-100 years out. While working as a VC in Korea he kept running the numbers and concluded the country has no viable economic future at its current fertility rate. His own firm's partners privately agreed but chose to ignore it because acknowledging it would break their investment models.

  • At Korea's current fertility rate, for every 100 Koreans there will be 5.9 great-grandchildren — a 94% population collapse over a century.
  • VCs think in 50-100 year horizons, which is why Silicon Valley people fixate on this while Wall Street doesn't.
  • His own firm's partners admitted the problem privately but agreed to ignore it because confronting it breaks the economic model.
  • No country has yet hit a fertility-collapse 'floor', and no country panics until it's already too late — 60% of Korean citizens are already over 40.

Korea had no future at their current fertility rate right now — for every 100 Koreans there will be 5.9 great-grandchildren. We are looking at…

Malcolm Collins · 00:00

Everybody knows this but... if we accepted it then the economy stops working, society stops working, so we're just gonna ignore it basically.

Malcolm Collins · 02:30
#fertility-collapse#korea#demographics#venture-capital
Story45:00

'Transmaxing' — Men Transitioning Genders to Escape a Bad Hand

Malcolm describes a fringe trend he calls 'transmaxing': men without gender dysphoria who choose to transition because they believe, after consuming red-pill/MGTOW content, that life is easier as a woman and hormone therapy is easy to access.

  • Distinct from traditional gender dysphoria — these men don't feel they were born the wrong gender.
  • Motivation is purely perceived lifestyle advantage: believing women 'have it easier.'
  • He links it to over-consumption of red-pill and MGTOW online content.
  • He mentions it alongside the trend of young men getting elective vasectomies as an anti-feminist protest, calling both unpredictable cultural developments.

As a guy... not particularly attractive or not particularly wealthy, I got dealt a bad hand — hormone therapy is easy to get access to…

Malcolm Collins · 45:30
#gender#internet-culture#men
Story71:30

Why Malcolm and His Wife Genetically Screened Their Embryos

Malcolm details the personal medical reasons his family used IVF and full genetic sequencing of embryos — his wife's fertility issues stemming from earlier anorexia, plus family history of cancer and major depressive disorder — to inform which embryos to implant first, aiming to reduce their children's odds of inheriting serious conditions.

  • His wife couldn't conceive naturally due to not menstruating, linked to earlier anorexia from depression.
  • IVF required embryo biopsies anyway, which produce genetic data they then used to choose implantation order.
  • They screened against family history of cancer (his wife's mother) and major depressive disorder, including migraines.
  • He argues refusing to use available genetic information to avoid these conditions, purely to avoid criticism, would be a failure to his future kids.

My kid comes to me and they're like 'Dad, I really want to kill myself right now'... you could have selected against this and you…

Malcolm Collins · 72:30
#ivf#genetic-screening#fertility#family
Story88:00

What His Wife's IVF Experience Was Actually Like

Malcolm gives a candid, personal account of how physically painful IVF has been for his wife, contrasted with her stoicism through childbirth itself — including working through contractions and going back to work five days postpartum — to underline how much sacrifice is involved in their approach to having many children.

  • His wife found egg extractions more painful than she expected, despite being someone who doesn't normally complain about pain.
  • She took sales calls during labor contractions and returned to work within five days of giving birth.
  • They tried to conceive naturally for five years before turning to IVF.
  • He frames not having kids as personally equivalent to 'suicide' for himself, underscoring why they persist despite the pain and cost.

For me, not having kids is the equivalent of suicide or something like that — it's just not an option.

Malcolm Collins · 88:30
#ivf#pregnancy#personal-story

Tool· 1

Tool90:00

Book Rec: The Pragmatist's Guide to Crafting Religion Series

Malcolm points listeners to his and his wife's book series as the most relevant resource for the ideas discussed, describing the 'firmware vs software' model of biology and culture used throughout the conversation.

  • Series title: 'The Pragmatist's Guide to Crafting Religion' — available on Amazon as a 99-cent ebook.
  • Frames human culture as evolving 'software' running on top of biological 'firmware' (genes).
  • Also references companion books: 'The Pragmatist's Guide to Relationships' and 'The Pragmatist's Guide to Sexuality.'
  • Directs listeners to find him and his wife on Twitter as 'Simone H Collins' and their new YouTube/podcast 'Simone & Malcolm Collins Based Camp.'

Our book series, The Pragmatist's Guide to Crafting Religion, is the most relevant to this conversation — it's on Amazon, 99 cents the ebook.

Malcolm Collins · 90:00
#book#resources#malcolm-collins

Takeaway· 1

Takeaway20:30

The Overlooked Crisis: Marriage Markets Are Collapsing Too

Malcolm argues the fertility conversation undersells the collapse of dating and marriage markets themselves. He cites that half of young men aren't even seeking relationships anymore, calling it a biologically strange and alarming statistic given it occurs during peak testosterone years.

  • 50% of men aged 18-30 say they aren't looking for casual or long-term relationships.
  • He frames finding a good long-term partner today as 'catching the last chopper out of Saigon.'
  • This isn't just about declining birth rates — dating itself is collapsing as a precursor.
  • Women show a similar disengagement pattern from relationships.

Being in a happy marriage these days feels a bit like catching the last chopper out of Saigon.

Malcolm Collins · 21:00

50% of guys aged 18 to 30 say that they are not looking for casual or long-term relationships.

Malcolm Collins · 21:00
#dating#marriage#relationships