Confidence Through Contingency
Make the feared scenario survivable so athletes can commit to their strengths
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 95%
Jones builds confidence by neutralizing the scenario an athlete fears, not by pretending it cannot happen. First identify the weak position that is consuming attention. Then give the athlete a credible plan for surviving or recovering from it and rehearse that response until it feels dependable. Once the downside is manageable, the athlete can take risks and fully commit to the area where they are strongest. Reassurance must come from someone whose judgment the athlete respects, and it should reinforce evidence from practice rather than offer empty praise. In short preparation windows, Jones favors slight adjustments and confidence in an athlete's existing game over a wholesale technical rebuild.
Origin
Jones described using this approach while coaching elite MMA fighters whose preferred plan was striking, even though he had been brought into camp as the grappling coach.
Core principles
- 01Fear of a weak area suppresses commitment to a strong area
- 02Confidence grows when the performer can recover from the feared event
- 03Trusted reassurance matters more than generic praise
- 04Small adjustments preserve reliable strengths under pressure
How to run it
- 1
Name the feared scenario
Identify the position, opponent strength, or failure mode that is absorbing the athlete's attention.
Pro tip Watch where the athlete becomes cautious in practice rather than relying only on what they say they fear.
- 2
Find the inhibition
Trace how fear of that scenario makes the athlete hesitate, avoid risks, or dilute their strongest game.
- 3
Build the recovery plan
Create a simple response that makes the feared position survivable and gives the athlete a path back to familiar territory.
Pro tip A credible escape is more useful than demanding perfect prevention.
Watch out Do not promise that the feared event cannot happen.
- 4
Rehearse under pressure
Start the athlete in the difficult scenario and practice the recovery until execution survives realistic resistance.
- 5
Reinforce the existing game
Use trusted, evidence-based reassurance and make only slight adjustments so the athlete can commit to what they already do well.
Pro tip Point to specific successful repetitions instead of saying only that they look good.
Watch out A late overhaul can replace one fear with several new uncertainties.
In the wild
Jones contrasted an avoidance plan, 'at all costs do not get taken down,' with a contingency plan: play the normal game, and if the fight reaches the ground, trust the rehearsed ability to get back up. The grappling preparation existed to remove fear from the striking plan.
→ The athlete can pursue his strongest game without treating one takedown as total failure.
Common mistakes
Building confidence with empty praise
Reassurance has little effect when it comes from someone the athlete does not trust or is not tied to evidence.
Trying to prevent every failure
An all-costs avoidance plan keeps the feared scenario central and can make the athlete too cautious to use their strengths.
Rebuilding the athlete before competition
Large technical changes in a short camp can erode confidence in skills that were already reliable.
Is it for you?
Best for
Coaches preparing capable performers for high-stakes situations where one feared failure mode distorts the whole game plan.
Not ideal for
Beginners whose fundamentals are genuinely missing and cannot be made reliable through reassurance and small adjustments alone.
From the transcript
“you approach coaching them and you really have to be careful about how you build confidence”
“their fear of the thing that they don't feel the best at happening is stopping them from doing the thing that they are the best…”
“adjustments or giving them confidence by reinforcing what they already do.”
From the episode
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Craig Jones