Iterative Decision-Making (Surfaces and Gaps)
Make small bets, probe for weakness, and pour resources only into the gaps that give
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 4
- Confidence
- 72%
Willink is an avowedly iterative decision-maker: he makes small decisions rather than going all-in on a single chance. When something looks interesting he gives it a crack; if it works he does more, if it doesn't he backs off. He maps this directly onto maneuver warfare's concept of surfaces and gaps: probe the situation for areas of weakness, and where you hit a surface (defended, no penetration) you stop, but where you find a gap you exploit it and put more resources behind assaulting that area — continuing to reinforce as long as you get good results. The pattern is explore first, exploit after, then repeat. By keeping commitments small up front, you preserve the ability to experiment, stay open-minded as conditions change, and avoid overcommitting to an approach that gets flanked.
Origin
Jocko Willink frames his personal decision style through the military doctrine of maneuver warfare — probing for surfaces and gaps — applied to business and life choices.
Core principles
- 01Make many small decisions rather than one all-in bet
- 02Probe for weakness before committing resources
- 03Where you hit a surface (no penetration), stop pushing
- 04Where you find a gap, exploit it and add resources
- 05Explore first, exploit second — then repeat
How to run it
- 1
Frame it as a small bet
Treat the move as one small, methodical decision rather than an all-in wager on a single chance.
Pro tip Not setting the bar unreasonably high keeps the first move from feeling intimidating or irreversible.
- 2
Give it a crack and read the result
Try the thing and watch what happens — you won't always win, but you'll get signal.
- 3
Back off surfaces
Where you hit resistance and get no penetration, stop pushing there — that's a defended surface.
- 4
Exploit gaps with more resources
Where you find a weakness and get good results, pour more resources into assaulting that area and keep reinforcing as long as it gives.
Pro tip Explore first, then exploit — and keep probing new arenas even when things are going well.
Watch out Don't overcommit to one fixed idea; if you think you've got it solved, you'll get flanked by the change you didn't see.
In the wild
Asked how he stays hungry when things are going well, Willink says he explores new arenas — something looks interesting, he gives it a crack, and he doesn't always win. Because he makes small decisions rather than going all-in on a chance, he can experiment and play with ideas cheaply. It's maneuver warfare: probe for weakness, and once you find a gap, put more resources behind it and keep going as long as the results hold.
→ Sustained forward momentum and new opportunities without betting everything on any single move.
Common mistakes
Going all-in on one bet
Putting all your money into one business leaves nothing for the next probe and makes a wrong call catastrophic and irreversible.
Locking into a single fixed approach
Believing you've solved the problem closes your mind; when conditions change, you get caught by the move that flanks you.
Is it for you?
Best for
Entrepreneurs and decision-makers exploring new ventures or arenas under uncertainty.
Not ideal for
Situations demanding one decisive, irreversible commitment where incrementalism forfeits the opportunity.
From the transcript
“It's essentially some maneuver warfare, which is you look at the enemy situation and you probe for areas of weakness, and once you find an…”
“I'm very much an iterative decision maker, meaning I make very small decisions at a time. I don't go all in on some chance.”
From the episode
How To Build Unstoppable Confidence - Jocko Willink - #949
Jocko Willink