Premeditatio Malorum: Rehearsing the Worst Case
Deliberately work through a worst-case scenario and how you'd respond
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 85%
Premeditatio malorum, literally the premeditation of bad things, has you deliberately construct a detailed worst-case scenario and rehearse how you will react as it unfolds, bit by bit. The aim is preparation and defusing fear, not worry. Pigliucci warns it must be done in a detached, rational frame; the modern CBT version uses guided visualization, but many people either slip into anxiety or, like him, cannot visualize well. His preferred method is writing: a letter to yourself or a friend you never send, or a short fictional story. Crucially, write in the second or third person, as Marcus Aurelius did, because that distance stops you getting emotional. Writing itself already separates you from the situation, turning a feared unknown into an examined, rehearsed one.
Origin
A classical Stoic technique (Seneca, Marcus Aurelius) whose written, distanced variant Pigliucci demonstrates on Modern Wisdom, contrasting it with the CBT visualization form.
Core principles
- 01Rehearse adversity in a detached, rational state, not an emotional one
- 02A prepared mind deals better with hardship than an unprepared one
- 03Writing creates distance that visualization often loses
- 04You cannot strategize well while emotionally executing
- 05Preparing in advance defuses fear of the scenario
How to run it
- 1
Pick a looming adversity
Choose a situation that might turn out badly, such as a serious illness during a pandemic.
Pro tip Remember most feared scenarios are unlikely, but rehearsing the tough ones still pays.
- 2
Build the worst case in detail
Spell out concretely what the worst plausible outcome looks like, for example ending up in a hospital emergency unit.
Pro tip Drop scenarios you can do nothing about, like death itself; focus where response is possible.
- 3
Choose a detached method
Prefer writing a letter you never send or a third-person short story over pure visualization, which more easily tips into emotion.
Pro tip If you visualize, consider doing it under a CBT therapist's supervision.
Watch out Visualization often makes people slip into an emotional state, which causes anxiety instead of relief.
- 4
Write in second or third person
Narrate the scenario as 'you' or as a character, never 'I,' to keep emotional distance. Marcus Aurelius addressed himself as 'you' throughout the Meditations.
Pro tip The distance is doing the work; research shows it makes a large difference.
Watch out First-person writing pulls you back into the emotion you are trying to avoid.
- 5
Rehearse your response step by step
Work through how you would react at each stage of the unfolding scenario, so you already have a plan if it happens.
In the wild
Facing COVID uncertainty, you write out the worst realistic case: not death, which you can do nothing about, but ending up in a hospital emergency unit. You describe in the third person how 'he' would handle admission, isolation, and treatment, working through each stage calmly. By the time you finish, the scenario has shifted from a vague dread into an examined situation you have a rehearsed response for.
→ The feared outcome loses its grip and you have a concrete plan if it arrives.
Common mistakes
Doing it emotionally instead of detached
Slipping into the feeling of the scenario turns a preparation exercise into a self-inflicted anxiety attack. Stay rational and stop if you cannot.
Writing in the first person
First-person narration collapses the distance the exercise depends on. Use second or third person to stay analytical.
Is it for you?
Best for
People facing a plausible but stressful bad outcome who want to blunt its fear and be ready.
Not ideal for
Those who slip into anxiety during visualization or who would ruminate obsessively.
From the transcript
“You very carefully and deliberately work through the worst case scenario and the way in which you're gonna react to that worst case scenario, bit…”
“Don't write that stuff in first person because first person you get emotional about it.”
From the episode
5 Exercises From Stoicism To Improve Your Life - Massimo Piggliuci - #170
Massimo Piggliuci