Progressive Overload of Uncertainty
Grow your potential by stepping into uncertainty at the edge of your ability
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 4
- Confidence
- 75%
Koe frames potential as a function of how much uncertainty you can embrace, applied gradually like progressive overload in the gym. Throwing yourself into the middle of the ocean won't teach you to swim; instead you take incremental steps that expand the known into the unknown, letting your mind marinate in a slight, empowering amount of uncertainty. The filter is emotional: anxiety signals you're punching above your weight with no puzzle pieces to make sense of the path, while boredom signals the challenge is too small. As you repeat this, past uncertainties become known, and — like leveling up in a game — the relative gap to the next challenge shrinks, so you can hold ever more uncertainty in mind.
Origin
Koe built this from a tweet — 'your potential is determined by how much uncertainty you're willing to embrace' — reconciled with his view that creativity thrives within constraints.
Core principles
- 01Potential is determined by how much uncertainty you can embrace
- 02Growth happens at your edge, not in the deep end or the shallows
- 03Boredom and anxiety are the two filters for finding your edge
- 04Yesterday's uncertainty becomes today's known as you level up
How to run it
- 1
Locate your edge
Find the boundary between what is already known to you and what is still unknown. This edge is where the most growth happens.
Pro tip Recall past uncertainties that no longer feel uncertain — proof the edge keeps moving.
- 2
Step into slight uncertainty
Take a deliberate, bounded step into the unknown and let your mind sit and marinate in the discomfort rather than retreating.
Watch out Jumping too far — like into the middle of the ocean — usually ends badly, not in growth.
- 3
Read the emotional signal
Use boredom and anxiety as filters. Anxiety means the task is too hard and you lack the pieces; boredom means it's too easy.
Pro tip Aim for the band between the two — challenging but sense-makeable.
Watch out Setting high, hard goals with no puzzle pieces produces paralyzing uncertainty, not growth.
- 4
Level up and repeat
Each cleared step turns unknown into known, expanding your capacity to hold uncertainty so the next challenge feels less daunting.
Pro tip Like a game character, a higher level lets you take on challenges that would once have one-shotted you.
In the wild
Koe uses the gym as the concrete analogue: living at your edge is pushing close to failure, or lean-bulking by eating just 200 calories over — hard to hold because you're hungry or tempted to overeat. That precise, uncomfortable place is where the most progress and fulfillment come from. Step too far above your weight and anxiety spikes; stay too safe and boredom sets in. The skill is staying in the narrow band that keeps producing growth.
→ Continuous, sense-makeable progress instead of overwhelm or stagnation.
Common mistakes
Setting goals with no puzzle pieces
High, hard goals with no knowledge, skill, or clarity to make sense of the path feel extremely uncertain and trigger anxiety rather than growth.
Jumping straight into the deep end
Throwing yourself into total uncertainty rarely teaches you anything; growth comes from graded, marinated steps at the edge.
Is it for you?
Best for
Anyone deliberately expanding their skills, responsibility, or ambition over time.
Not ideal for
Situations demanding stability where novelty introduces unacceptable risk.
From the transcript
“your potential is determined by how much uncertainty you're willing to embrace ... the progressive overload of uncertainty and responsibility”
“if you feel yourself getting anxious that usually means that you're punching above your weight ... the task is too challenging for you”
From the episode
How To Design Your Life For Peak Creativity - Dan Koe - #894
Dan Koe