Spike-in-the-Pattern Situational Awareness
Baseline your environment, scan hands and demeanor, and act on anomalies before they escalate
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 78%
Rather than individually processing every person, you first learn the environment's baseline and then scan for spikes in the pattern, anomalies that stand out audibly or visually. The scan focuses on hands and demeanor because threats come from the hands and well-trained aggressors betray no demeanor. When you catch a spike, the person yelling in the corner booth, the chest-poke, the hand moving to a waistband, you refuse the lazy instinct to write it off and instead attach a pre-decided plan of action. Because you have already observed and decided, your response beats the aggressor's action instead of lagging behind it. Over time this deliberate observation becomes an ingrained habit, letting you get yourself and your family off the X before a confrontation ever begins.
Origin
Mike Glover developed this from military behavioral-dynamics and executive-communication training and teaches it through Fieldcraft Survival, illustrating it with Jocko's habitual hand-tracking eye movements caught only by a tight-crop camera operator.
Core principles
- 01Reaction is slower than action unless you already have a heads-up display
- 02Threats come from the hands, not the feet, so hands and demeanor are the scroll
- 03Skilled operators give no demeanor hits, so watch the hands
- 04Anomalies get written off out of laziness, and that is where risk hides
- 05Every spike deserves a pre-decided plan of action, not a shrug
How to run it
- 1
Read the baseline
Take in the whole environment audibly and visually and register what normal looks and sounds like here.
Pro tip Scan the entire spectrum of the room at once rather than assessing one person at a time.
- 2
Scan hands and demeanor
Run a continuous loop on hands and demeanor, because the threat comes from the hands and capable operators show no demeanor hits.
Watch out Skilled aggressors hide their demeanor, so never rely on a bad vibe alone, watch the hands.
- 3
Detect the spike
Identify anomalies that break the pattern, a raised voice, a chest poke, a hand drifting to a waistband.
- 4
Refuse to write it off
Resist the lazy instinct to dismiss the anomaly as nothing, which is how people miss the lead-up to violence.
Pro tip Treat unexplained noises and behaviors as caused by something, then investigate rather than ignore.
- 5
Attach a plan of action
When you see poor demeanor, think action, decide in advance what you will do so your response is already loaded.
- 6
Get off the X
Use the early read to move yourself and loved ones out of the danger zone before any contact occurs.
Pro tip The goal is a tactical advantage that lets you avoid confrontation entirely, not win one.
In the wild
During a two-and-a-half-hour interview, a camera operator on a super-tight crop of Jocko's eyes noticed that every time the host leaned forward and put a hand near his laptop, Jocko's eyes would dart down to the hands for a split second every five to ten seconds. Sitting seventy centimeters away, the host never saw it, but the operator watching only the eyes did. Jocko was running a constant hands-demeanor scan so ingrained it had become invisible habit.
→ Illustrates how deliberate observation of hands becomes an automatic, always-on security scroll in experienced operators.
A friend with unusually high situational awareness felt something off in a busy Tokyo bar, gave it a couple of seconds, then told his wife and companions to get under the table. Five seconds after they did, a man pulled an automatic rifle and sprayed the bar in a gangland dispute. His baseline read of environmental pressure gave him the seconds that mattered.
→ Everyone at his table was below the line of fire before the shooting started, unharmed.
Common mistakes
Writing off the anomaly
Dismissing a raised voice or a noise downstairs as nothing is the lazy default that lets a threat develop unopposed.
Reading demeanor instead of hands
Capable aggressors give no demeanor hits, so relying on how someone seems rather than what their hands do misses the real signal.
Observing without a plan
Noticing a spike but not having a pre-decided action means your reaction is still slower than the aggressor's move.
Is it for you?
Best for
Anyone who wants to spot a developing threat early in public or crowded environments.
Not ideal for
Someone seeking a purely physical or gear-based solution rather than a perceptual habit.
From the transcript
“You could look across the entire spectrum of a restaurant and assess audibly, visually, is there any anomalies? Is there any spikes in the pattern?”
“reaction is always slower than action. Not if you have a heads-up display and are being situationally aware.”
“it's not called a foot gun, it's a hand gun, right? It's that's where the threat comes from.”
From the episode
Green Beret Teaches You How to Survive Any Situation - Mike Glover - #656
Mike Glover