Succeed Even If You Fail
Pick projects as experiments that build transferable skills and relationships
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 80%
This is a project-selection decision rule built around one question: can I succeed even if I fail? Facing five or six possible projects for the next three months, Ferriss treats each as an experiment and biases toward the ones that will deepen a durable skill or relationship regardless of the external outcome. Because skills and relationships persist after a project ends, a bet that fails by public metrics can still be a net gain that compounds into later success, an inverse pyrrhic victory or successful failure. He pairs this with short horizons: two-to-four-week experiments inside a three-month window, deliberately avoiding rigid multi-year plans that would create blindness to attractive, unpredictable doors, such as the podcast opportunity he seized in 2014.
Origin
Extracted from Modern Wisdom episode 780. Ferriss traces the rule across his angel-investing start around 2008 and his 2014 podcast launch, crediting the underlying question to others before him.
Core principles
- 01Treat every project as a short experiment, not a binary win-or-lose bet.
- 02Skills and relationships persist after a project ends; outcomes may not.
- 03Bias toward bets that deepen skills or relationships even if they flop externally.
- 04Short-term experiments keep you open to unpredictable doors a fixed plan would blind you to.
How to run it
- 1
Enumerate the candidate projects
List the five or six projects or experiments you could realistically pursue over the next three months.
- 2
Apply the failure-proof test
For each candidate ask which will develop or deepen skills and relationships the most, even if it fails by external metrics.
- 3
Bias toward transferable gains
Choose the projects whose skills and relationships will transfer forward and accumulate, independent of whether the project itself wins.
Pro tip A failed project that leaves you more skilled and better connected is still a win.
- 4
Run short experiments
Structure the work as two-to-four-week experiments within a three-month horizon rather than a fixed long-range plan.
Pro tip Framing them as experiments is semantic insurance against the psychological distress of failure.
Watch out A rigid three-year plan can blind you to attractive doors you never predicted.
- 5
Judge over years, not per project
Assess accumulation across three to five years, treating each outcome as feedback rather than a closed win-or-lose verdict.
In the wild
While promoting The 4-Hour Chef, Ferriss put his chips into podcasting, an uncrowded high-leverage channel. He justified it not by projected downloads but by transferable gains: it would sharpen his interviewing and questioning for future books and let him deepen friendships under a natural pretext. Because he had preserved optionality by only signing single-book deals, he was free to seize the opening. The experiment compounded into a show later better known than his books.
→ An experiment chosen for skill and relationship gains became a defining, download-rich business.
Common mistakes
Locking in rigid long-range plans
A fixed three-year blueprint creates blindness to unpredictable, attractive opportunities that short experiments would let you seize.
Treating outcomes as binary
Scoring projects as pure success or failure ignores the skills and relationships that persist and compound regardless of the result.
Is it for you?
Best for
Generalists and multi-track operators deciding which of several opportunities to pursue next.
Not ideal for
Top-1%-of-1% specialists whose single superpower justifies a long linear plan.
From the transcript
“How can I succeed even if I fail? If I ask myself which of these will help me to develop or deepen skills, develop or…”
“I don't view the failure of any given project as a failure as long as there are things developed that can transfer forward into other…”
From the episode
The Lessons, Hacks & Books That Changed My Life - Tim Ferriss - #780
Tim Ferriss