Ten Ideas to a Validated Bet
Generate ten ideas, shortlist three, then prove demand with 150 sign-ups before you build
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 92%
Priestley's launch method starts with ideation: come up with ten ideas rather than one, because a single idea breeds fixation. Each idea should be examined through three windows: a problem you've noticed, a passion you hold, and a payment (money already flowing somewhere). A viable business eventually needs all three. Shortlist your favourite three, then run a validation campaign on the top pick: a waiting-list landing page, a WhatsApp group, or a free online assessment. The bar is 150 free sign-ups gathered without every-waking-hour effort. Clear it and the idea lives; fail it and the idea is dead. From those 150 you then speak to 30 people, a statistically significant sample, to gather real feedback before building anything.
Origin
Codified by Daniel Priestley across seven startups that hit $1M in year one and his DENT accelerator's 5,500 companies, shared on Modern Wisdom.
Core principles
- 01Never fall in love with one idea; generate ten so you stay objective
- 02Every viable idea sits at the intersection of a problem, a passion, and a payment
- 03If a business has a place in the world, 150 people will do something free to signal interest
- 04150 people is a statistically significant demand test; 30 conversations is a significant feedback test
How to run it
- 1
Generate ten ideas
Force yourself to list ten distinct ideas so you never become obsessed with the first one that appears.
Watch out When you come up with just one idea you become fixated and lose objectivity.
- 2
Test each through problem, passion, payment
Enter each idea through one of three windows: an unmet problem, a genuine passion, or money you've noticed floating around a space. Score ideas on all three.
Pro tip You usually start from one window, but the business ultimately needs all three.
- 3
Shortlist your favourite three
Discuss the ten with a few people and narrow to the three strongest candidates worth a real test.
- 4
Launch a 150-person validation campaign
For the top idea, stand up a waiting-list landing page, a WhatsApp group, or a free assessment and ask a few qualifying questions.
Pro tip Ask their name, email, what they currently do in the space, their goal, biggest barrier, and budget.
Watch out It shouldn't take every waking hour; a few DMs, a group post, and a LinkedIn post should reach 150.
- 5
Enforce the 150 and 30 thresholds
If you can't get 150 people to do something free, kill the idea. If you can, talk to 30 of them for statistically significant feedback.
Pro tip If you can't get 150 to fill a free form, you won't get 150 to buy anything.
In the wild
Priestley illustrates the test using a focus-and-clarity drink. All you'd need is ChatGPT or a designer to mock up the can, a landing page saying 'we're launching a new drink about focus, join the waiting list, answer five questions, go in the draw for $500 of product.' You ask what they currently drink, their goals, and budget. If 150 people join, the idea can progress; if not, it's game over.
→ Demand is proven or killed in weeks for the cost of a landing page, before any product exists.
Common mistakes
Falling in love with one idea
Committing to the first idea creates obsession and blinds you to better options and to disconfirming evidence.
Building before the 150 test
Investing in product before proving 150 people will act signals you skipped the cheapest possible demand check.
Is it for you?
Best for
First-time or serial founders deciding what to build next with limited time and money.
Not ideal for
Deep-tech or capital-intensive plays where a landing page can't meaningfully test demand.
From the transcript
“the first step is ideiation which is to come up with not one but 10 ideas... when you come up with one idea you become…”
“My rule is if you can't get 150 people on a waiting list, then it's game over. That idea is dead.”
From the episode
$0 To $1M: The New Rules For Building A Thriving Business - Daniel Priestley - #946
Daniel Priestley