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MindsetErik Angner

The Trade-Off Lens

Reject every 'only solution'; surface the costs, benefits and values at stake

Difficulty
Easy
Time to result
~weeks to results
Steps
4
Confidence
66%

Economics, in Angner's telling, is fundamentally a way of looking at human decisions that brings the values, costs and benefits at stake to the fore. Because resources are limited, every choice requires striking a balance: giving up a little of one thing to get a little of another. The diagnostic tell of bad thinking is the phrase 'this is the only solution,' which signals someone is refusing to recognise the trade-offs. The method is to name the goal, enumerate what must be sacrificed to reach it, and lay out the alternative paths with their full range of costs and benefits. Crucially, economics does not supply the values, so the final judgement is handed back to the people affected, who alone can say what matters to them.

Origin

Angner contrasts economic thinking with a Yale economist's claim that mass suicide of the elderly is 'the only solution' to Japan's ageing society, which he calls a fundamentally uneconomic way of looking at the world.

Core principles

  • 01Resources are limited, so every choice means giving up something to get something
  • 02Anyone claiming 'this is the only solution' is ignoring the trade-offs
  • 03Economics maps costs and benefits; it does not supply the values
  • 04The people affected must supply what matters to them
  • 05Wanting everything at once, with no cost, is childish

How to run it

  1. 1

    Flag the 'only solution' framing

    Treat any claim that there is a single inevitable answer as a red flag that trade-offs are being hidden.

    Pro tip The words 'the only way' are the cue to slow down and look for what is being ignored.

  2. 2

    State the actual goal

    Clarify the specific outcome you are trying to attain, separate from any one proposed means to it.

  3. 3

    Enumerate the sacrifices and alternatives

    List what must be given up to reach the goal, and lay out the alternative paths with their full costs and benefits.

    Pro tip Force at least two viable paths onto the table so no single option looks inevitable.

    Watch out Skipping the full range of costs and benefits reintroduces the 'only solution' blindness.

  4. 4

    Return the values judgement to the affected

    Economics maps the options but cannot pick between them; hand the final choice to the people who must live with it.

    Watch out Do not let the analyst smuggle in their own values as if the data decided.

In the wild

The 'only solution' to an ageing society

A Yale economist publicly claimed the only solution to Japan's ageing society was mass suicide of the elderly. Angner calls this a fundamentally uneconomic way of looking at the world, because 'anytime somebody says this is the only solution, that means they're not recognizing the tradeoffs involved.' The economic move instead is to take the goal, such as avoiding mass suicide, and lay out the range of paths with their costs and benefits, then let voters and citizens decide.

A single inevitable-sounding answer is replaced by a menu of paths whose values judgement belongs to the affected public.

Common mistakes

Treating an 'only solution' as real

Accepting single-option framing hides the trade-offs and lets someone else's values masquerade as an inevitable conclusion.

Letting the analyst supply the values

Economics can lay out costs and benefits but cannot pick the winner; skipping the affected people's values corrupts the decision.

Is it for you?

Best for

Anyone evaluating a high-stakes decision or policy that is being sold as inevitable.

Not ideal for

Trivial choices where the deliberation costs more than the decision is worth.

From the transcript

Anytime somebody says, 'This is the only way. This is the only solution.' That means that they're not recognizing the tradeoffs involved.

Erik Angner · 03:30

there's a limited amount of whatever we care about ... we have to give up a little bit of this in order to get a…

Erik Angner · 02:00

From the episode

An Economist’s Guide To A Happy Life - Erik Angner - #657

Erik Angner