Visible Metric Substitution
Protect the real outcome when an easy proxy starts directing behavior
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 94%
Henderson applies Goodhart's Law to the tension between online status and relationship quality. Likes, views, and follower counts are visible, immediate, and responsive to strategy; trust, attachment, and satisfaction are not delivered as daily scores. Because the proxy offers constant feedback, people begin managing it and may choose a more exciting online persona over a more enjoyable private life. Counter the substitution by defining the real outcome first, cataloguing its visible proxies, and identifying actions taken only to move those numbers. Pair quantitative feedback with qualitative evidence, delayed consequences, and direct conversation. The aim is not to discard metrics, but to prevent their measurability from granting them authority over what actually matters.
Origin
Henderson invoked Goodhart's Law while discussing why influencers may prioritize follower engagement and personal branding over an unquantified but satisfying relationship.
Core principles
- 01Visible numbers attract attention that hidden quality cannot
- 02Managing a proxy can displace the outcome it was meant to support
- 03Important outcomes often require qualitative judgment
- 04A metric is safest when paired with an independent reality check
How to run it
- 1
Name the real outcome
Describe what success means without referring to a dashboard, rank, score, follower count, or other proxy.
Pro tip Use language a person affected by the outcome would recognize.
- 2
Map the proxies
List every visible metric used to infer the outcome and note how quickly each one responds to behavior.
- 3
Find proxy-driven behavior
Identify choices that improve the number while leaving the real outcome unchanged or making it worse.
Pro tip Look for tactics that stop as soon as the metric is hidden.
- 4
Add independent evidence
Pair the metric with qualitative feedback, direct observation, or a delayed result that is harder to game.
Pro tip Use a signal generated by a different process from the proxy.
Watch out Adding more correlated metrics does not create an independent check.
- 5
Constrain the proxy
Define which decisions the metric may inform and which require judgment based on the underlying outcome.
Watch out Do not let a useful indicator become the objective by default.
In the wild
An influencer can see immediately that relationship posts lose followers, but cannot see a daily numerical score for trust or attachment. Optimizing the visible number encourages hiding the relationship or making private life serve the online brand.
→ The measurable audience proxy can displace the less measurable outcome of an enjoyable relationship.
Common mistakes
Confusing visibility with importance
A metric feels authoritative because it is precise and current, not necessarily because it captures the result that matters.
Replacing one proxy with five
A larger dashboard still fails if every metric measures the same superficial behavior.
Rejecting measurement entirely
Metrics remain useful as bounded indicators when they are checked against independent evidence and judgment.
Is it for you?
Best for
Creators, managers, and individuals whose dashboards make one visible number feel more important than the underlying relationship or result.
Not ideal for
Processes where the metric directly and comprehensively measures the desired outcome without creating conflicting incentives.
From the transcript
“I'm thinking about uh as you're saying this goodart's law or that old phrase what gets measured it gets managed.”
“It's very, you know, it's quantifiable. You see it on your phone or on your screen. But relationships aren't like that.”
“So yeah, I think people are, you know, kind of kind of misguidedly um focusing on the wrong thing here.”
From the episode
Is Having a Boyfriend Cringe Now? - Rob Henderson - #1016
Rob Henderson