The Wild Problems Approach to Life's Big Decisions
Navigate irreversible, transformative choices where cost-benefit analysis breaks down
- Difficulty
- Expert
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 82%
Russ Roberts distinguishes ordinary choices from 'wild problems' — decisions that are irreversible, transformative, and impossible to model because you cannot know in advance what it is like to be a parent, a spouse, or an emigrant. For these, the economist's maximization toolkit fails: you have no data and the experience itself changes what you care about. Instead of optimizing pleasure, Roberts argues you should ask who you want to become, since these decisions capture your identity and give texture to your whole life. He counsels accepting that there is no provably 'right' choice, treating so-called mistakes as the natural cost of living, and leaping more freely when the cost of reversing is low.
Origin
From Russ Roberts' book Wild Problems: A Guide to the Decisions That Define Us, discussed on Modern Wisdom with Chris Williamson. Roberts, a trained economist, developed it as a corrective to the utility-maximization framework he had advocated in his younger years.
Core principles
- 01The decisions that define you cannot be reduced to a pleasure-and-pain calculation
- 02Some experiences change who you are, so you cannot know your future preferences in advance
- 03There is often no single right answer, and accepting that is liberating not defeating
- 04Happiness is best pursued in a roundabout way, not optimized head-on
- 05When the cost of reversing is small, lean toward leaping
How to run it
- 1
Identify a wild problem
Ask whether the decision is largely irreversible, will transform who you are, and lacks the data needed for a rational calculation. Marriage, having children, a big move, and how ethical a life to lead all qualify.
Pro tip The tell is that you literally cannot imagine what the outcome feels like from the outside.
- 2
Set down the calculator
Stop trying to build a pro/con list or expected-value model. On wild problems the inputs are unknowable and the exercise gives false confidence.
Watch out Do not simply flip to 'going with your gut' either — that is not the alternative Roberts recommends.
- 3
Ask who you want to become
Because these decisions define you, reframe them around identity: who do you want to be, what might you care about if you grew, reached, or became more ethical, ambitious, or purposeful.
Pro tip Consider your future self, not only the self you are today, since the choice will change what you value.
- 4
Explore your values through deep sources
Use the tools that help you see yourself and transcend yourself — therapy, religion, meditation, or reading great literature that reveals the human heart.
- 5
Release the need for the optimal answer
Accept that there is often no single best decision. Treat the anxiety of an unmoored choice as normal and find solace in the fact that so-called mistakes are just part of living.
Pro tip Many people find real comfort in being told there is no perfect answer to find.
- 6
Leap when reversing is cheap
Where the cost of going back is relatively small, do more leaping. Changing your mind is not shameful; the fear of looking foolish is usually worse than the reversal itself.
Watch out Weigh true irreversibility honestly — becoming a parent cannot be undone, while a move or a job often can.
In the wild
Charles Darwin drew two columns, 'marry' and 'not marry', listing children and a companion against lost work time and clever conversation at clubs. On paper the rational choice was clearly not to marry — Kafka made a similar list and declined. Yet Darwin married anyway, sensing a meaning and satisfaction he could not access in advance. His wife read to him nightly and he came to love a life his own list had argued against.
→ The rational ledger pointed one way; Darwin leapt the other and found a texture of life the calculation could never capture.
Philosopher L.A. Paul asks whether to become a vampire. Every vampire loves the life and looks back on their human years with disdain, but you cannot know that satisfaction until you cross over, and there is no going back. Big life decisions like parenthood work the same way: the experience is transformative and unknowable from the outside, so no pre-decision calculation can settle it.
→ Illustrates why transformative choices resist cost-benefit reasoning — the deciding self is not the self who will live with the result.
Common mistakes
Modeling a wild problem like a calculable one
Applying pro/con lists and expected value to marriage, children, or a move produces false precision because you lack the data and the choice changes your preferences.
Treating a changed mind as failure
Framing a reversal as a mistake to hide from others adds needless shame; on wild problems it is simply part of living without being able to see the future.
Defaulting to raw gut instinct
Abandoning analysis for a wild guess is not the answer; the goal is drawing on accumulated experience and identity, not an impulsive hunch.
Is it for you?
Best for
Anyone facing a defining, hard-to-reverse choice like marriage, children, career, or relocation.
Not ideal for
Routine, reversible, well-informed choices where ordinary cost-benefit reasoning works fine.
From the transcript
“these are problems where it's not just you can't do a cost-benefit analysis uh you don't have the kind of information you need to make…”
“since these are the decisions that Define us you might want to think about who you want to be”
“if you know the cost is relatively small you should do more leaping you can go back it's okay nothing to be ashamed of”
From the episode
An Economist’s Guide To Life’s Big Decisions - Russ Roberts - #531
Russ Roberts