Asymmetry Mapping
Avoid small-upside bottomless-downside risks and chase capped-downside unlimited-upside bets
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 83%
Asymmetry mapping, which MacGill draws from mathematics and Taleb, sorts choices by the shape of their upside versus downside. Asymmetric risks have a tiny upside and an almost bottomless downside — texting while driving offers a forgettable group-chat reply against the risk of paralysing or killing someone. The flip side is asymmetric opportunity: actions where the downside is trivially small but the upside is enormous. His favourite example is direct-messaging interesting people, especially if you can offer a skill: the downside is thirty seconds of your time, the upside is a valuable new relationship. The discipline is to map decisions onto this axis and structure your life to avoid catastrophic-downside risks while taking cheap, high-upside bets as often as possible.
Origin
MacGill frames asymmetry as coming from mathematics and Nassim Taleb, splitting it into asymmetric risks (texting while driving, unprotected sex) and asymmetric opportunities (cold DMs), illustrated by how he booked guests like Daniel Sloss.
Core principles
- 01Some risks offer trivial upside and bottomless downside
- 02Some bets offer trivial downside and near-unlimited upside
- 03Map your choices onto their asymmetry before acting
- 04Cheap actions with huge potential upside should be taken constantly
How to run it
- 1
Estimate the upside
For the choice in front of you, work out the best realistic outcome.
- 2
Estimate the downside
Work out the worst realistic outcome and how catastrophic it could be.
- 3
Flag asymmetric risks
Identify choices where the upside is negligible but the downside is near-bottomless, and avoid them.
Watch out Texting while driving risks paralysis, prison, or killing someone for a forgettable message.
- 4
Flag asymmetric opportunities
Identify actions where the downside is trivial but the upside is enormous.
Pro tip Cold-DMing interesting people, offering a skill, costs seconds and can yield a lasting relationship.
- 5
Structure life around the map
Systematically avoid the catastrophic-downside risks and take the cheap high-upside bets often.
In the wild
Tagged in a tweet that comedian Daniel Sloss was coming to Newcastle, MacGill simply replied inviting him onto the podcast before his live show. The downside was thirty seconds and a possible non-reply; the upside materialised — Sloss came on, they hit 50k views in a couple of weeks, became friends speaking weekly, and MacGill gained somewhere to stay in Edinburgh.
→ A trivial-cost message produced an outsized, compounding payoff.
The upside of texting while driving is responding to a group chat with a message you won't even remember — negligible. The downside is being paralysed for life, ending up in prison, or killing someone. Mapping the two makes the decision obvious.
→ A clear illustration of a risk to categorically avoid.
Common mistakes
Treating asymmetric risks as symmetric
Weighing a tiny convenience against a catastrophic downside as if they were comparable leads to reckless choices.
Not taking cheap high-upside bets
People skip low-cost actions like reaching out, forfeiting enormous upside for no real downside.
Is it for you?
Best for
Everyday risk decisions and low-cost, high-upside actions like reaching out to people.
Not ideal for
Situations where outcomes really are roughly symmetric and expected value is the better lens.
From the transcript
“asymmetrical risks are something where the upside is incredibly small and the downside is... almost bottomless”
“the downside there was 30 seconds of my time... if it goes well you've met like a new good friend”
From the episode
Mental Models 101 - How To Make Better Decisions - George MacGill - #069
George MacGill