Future Trajectory Audit
Judge a career by the future it produces when everything goes right
- Difficulty
- Starter
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 94%
The audit converts a vague career promise into an observable future. First, inspect colleagues several years ahead, then the boss and the boss's boss. Look at the work they perform, the hours they keep, their apparent satisfaction, and the life the role supports. Next, describe the best-case scenario in which every promotion and pay rise arrives on schedule. Ask what the ordinary day would actually contain. Johnny saw senior accountants who looked miserable; Yousef saw that even a successful decade at BlackRock would still mean a similar laptop, similar spreadsheets, longer hours, more responsibility, and less evening time. If the destination is unattractive even when the path goes perfectly, waiting for the job to improve is a weak strategy.
Origin
Johnny and Yousef describe using senior colleagues and the best possible promotion path to assess careers in accountancy and at BlackRock.
Core principles
- 01Senior colleagues make an abstract career path visible
- 02The best-case outcome matters more than hope that work will improve
- 03More pay and responsibility do not guarantee a better daily life
- 04A path is unattractive if its successful destination is unattractive
How to run it
- 1
Find visible future selves
Identify colleagues and managers who are five to ten years farther along the same career path.
Pro tip Study several levels rather than one unusually happy or unhappy person.
- 2
Observe the daily reality
Examine their work, hours, stress, autonomy, and life outside work.
Pro tip Focus on the repeated day, not the title or annual salary.
Watch out Status can make an unchanged daily routine appear more attractive than it is.
- 3
Build the best case
Assume the career progresses perfectly and describe where that leaves you.
Pro tip Include responsibility, schedule, location, and evening time alongside pay.
- 4
Compare destination with preference
Ask whether you want the person and lifestyle that the successful path produces.
Watch out Do not assume time alone will turn an unwanted destination into a wanted one.
- 5
Choose the path deliberately
Stay if the destination fits, or investigate a sideways move or different profession if it does not.
Pro tip A different employer can be a valid answer; self-employment is not the only alternative.
In the wild
Johnny saw people five, six, and seven years ahead in accountancy and concluded that their lives looked miserable rather than aspirational. Their example made his own future in the role visible.
→ He stopped relying on the hope that the same path would become attractive later.
Yousef imagined remaining at BlackRock while everything went perfectly. He still saw himself in the same building, using a similar laptop and spreadsheets, with more responsibility, more money, longer hours, and less time before bed.
→ Even the successful version of the path did not match the future he wanted.
Common mistakes
Assuming it will get better
Waiting without evidence can turn early dissatisfaction into decades on the same unwanted path.
Judging only the pay rise
Higher income can arrive with the same work, longer hours, and more responsibility.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for people hoping an unrewarding early-career role will eventually become fulfilling.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal when no observable senior role resembles the path available to the employee.
From the transcript
“I could see people who were like five six seven years down the line and I'm looking than going like that's that was the big…”
“what is the best case scenario I stay here and everything goes perfectly what will be happening”
“if the best-case scenario isn't like that might what's the point”
From the episode
Should I Work For Myself? - Business Principles 102 - #106
Business Principles 102