The Premortem
Assume the decision already failed, then work backward to prevent it
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 4
- Confidence
- 80%
Grant contrasts the postmortem (studying a failure after it happens) with Gary Klein's premortem (studying it before). The mechanism: assume that, with the benefit of hindsight a few years out, the decision turned out to be an unmitigated disaster, then ask what the most likely causes of that failure were. Having that conversation upfront makes you 'better at seeing around corners' so you can prevent problems in the first place. Grant frames it as 'pre-traumatic growth' — the inverse of post-traumatic growth, where you commit to grow from an event without having to suffer it first. The critical guardrail is that a premortem must produce lessons and preventive actions; without them it collapses into rumination, listing everything that could go wrong without doing anything about it. He also notes big failures teach more than small ones because they stop you in your tracks and force a real postmortem.
Origin
Grant credits the premortem to psychologist Gary Klein and pairs it with his own concept of 'pre-traumatic growth,' discussed on Modern Wisdom.
Core principles
- 01Imagining failure in advance surfaces risks a forward plan hides
- 02You can grow from a setback before it happens — pre-traumatic growth
- 03The point is prevention, not prophecy — each risk should yield an action
- 04Big failures teach more than small ones because they force a real postmortem
How to run it
- 1
Fast-forward to failure
Before committing, imagine that a few years from now, in hindsight, the decision was a total disaster.
Pro tip Run it as a group conversation for a big shared decision to surface more angles.
- 2
List the likely causes
Ask what the most probable reasons for that failure were. Naming them upfront makes you better at anticipating what might go wrong.
- 3
Convert each risk to an action
For every likely cause, decide what you can do now to prevent it. This is what separates a premortem from mere worrying.
Pro tip Reframe an identified, broken-down risk as a cause for celebration — you can now make it less likely.
Watch out A premortem without lessons is just rumination on all the things that could go wrong.
- 4
Reserve deep postmortems for big failures
When something does fail, the bigger the failure the more it forces a genuine 'what went wrong and how do we prevent it' analysis. Don't waste small failures, but expect the leaps after big ones.
Watch out Small failures are easy to explain away and move past without learning.
In the wild
Grant cites a Madsen and Desai study of every organization that launched a rocket into space over half a century. The finding: the biggest jumps in success rate came after a really big failure, because a small failure is easy to explain away while a big one stops you cold and forces a rigorous postmortem. The premortem imports that discipline before the launch — you rehearse the disaster in advance and prevent it.
→ Anticipates failure modes early enough to prevent them, capturing the learning without paying full price.
Common mistakes
Listing risks without preventive actions
A premortem that only enumerates disasters, with no plan attached, is rumination — it raises anxiety without lowering risk.
Explaining away small failures
Because minor flops are easy to rationalise, people skip the postmortem and miss the lesson; the big failures are the ones that force real learning.
Is it for you?
Best for
Groups or individuals facing a high-stakes, hard-to-reverse decision.
Not ideal for
Anxious people prone to rumination who list risks without ever converting them to actions.
From the transcript
“the idea of a pre premortem is you say okay we're about to make a big decision as a group... let's assume in the next…”
“you could have pre-traumatic growth where you anticipate the things that could go horribly and then try to prepare yourself for the lessons”
From the episode
How To Overcome Your Fear Of Failure & Unlock Your Potential - Adam Grant - #885
Adam Grant